TheRolePlayer

Instead of expected returns and volatility, we adapted our model to fit the NBA by using offensive and defensive ratings. Here's a look at our methodology, results, and what they mean for the future of team building in the NBA.

Our Approach: Offensive and Defensive Ratings

Defensive Rating

For defensive rating, we factored in defensive rebounds (dreb), steals (stl), blocks (blk), personal fouls (pf), and minutes played. The formula looks like this:

Offensive Rating

For offensive rating, we accounted for field goals made (fgm), three-pointers made (fgm3), free throws made (ftm), offensive rebounds (orb), assists (ast), turnovers (totv), and minutes played. Here’s that formula:

The Efficient Frontier in NBA Terms

The Efficient Frontier in finance describes the set of optimal portfolios that offer the highest expected return for a defined level of risk. Similarly, in our NBA context, it represents the set of optimal lineups that offer the best offensive and defensive balance.

How It Works:

1. Plotting Ratings: Each 5-man lineup's offensive and defensive ratings are plotted on a graph, where the x-axis represents the offensive rating and the y-axis represents the defensive rating.

2. Identifying the Frontier: The line that forms the 'edge' of these plotted points comprises the Efficient Frontier, showing the ideal balance between offensive and defensive capabilities. This line is curved because it reflects the trade-off between higher offensive output and the defensive solidity necessary to maintain overall team effectiveness.

3. Choosing Lineups: Lineups on the Efficient Frontier are considered optimal as they maximize one rating (offense) without excessive detriment to the other (defense), and vice versa.

Efficient Frontier Graph

The Top Teams Unveiled

Top Defensive Teams

Team A:

Rudy Gobert
Joel Embiid
Clint Capela
Andre Drummond
DeAndre Jordan

Team B:

Jonathan Isaac
Drew Eubanks
John Konchar
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
DeAndre Jordan

Team C:

Rudy Gobert
Joel Embiid
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Jokic
Walker Kessler

Top Offensive Teams

Team D:

James Harden
Joel Embiid
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Jokic
LeBron James

Top Aggregate Teams

Team E:

Jonathan Isaac
Kyle Anderson
John Konchar
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
DeAndre Jordan

Implications for NBA Strategy

By leveraging the Efficient Frontier, NBA teams can better strategize their player selections and rotations to maximize on-court performance. What stands out is the balance between strong offensive and defensive plays is crucial. Teams that focus too narrowly on one aspect may find themselves excelling in that area but falling short overall.

For coaches and general managers, the creation of balanced lineups can potentially lead to more victories and optimized team performance over the season.

Conclusion

Employing the concept of the Efficient Frontier has been a fascinating exercise in bridging finance and sports analytics. While traditionally used in optimizing investment portfolios, this approach delivers actionable insights into forming NBA teams that excel both offensively and defensively. This pioneering method offers a framework that teams can look to in their quest for basketball excellence.